The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

President Trump defended his aggressive trade policies toward China, asserting Beijing would likely absorb the tariffs despite concerns about rising prices for American consumers. He dismissed economic anxieties,