It's currently part of a large low-pressure system but is expected to consolidate into an organized tropical depression and eventually Tropical Storm Rafael over the next few days.

Long-range computer forecasts are in much better agreement that a disturbance, tropical depression, or perhaps Tropical Storm Patty could track into the Gulf of Mexico late next week.

Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean Sea Monday afternoon and could bring a rare November threat to the United States this weekend after tearing through parts of the western Caribbean. Rafael is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday and could rapidly intensify over the warm water of the northwest Caribbean,